Dampak Foreign Direct Investment dan Investasi Portofolio Terhadap Stabilitas Makroekonomi di Indonesia : Fenomena Global Imbalances

Abstract

Abstrak

Ketidakseimbangan pemulihan ekonomi global memberikan implikasi pada perekonomian negara-negara emerging markets, termasuk Indonesia diantaranya masif-nya aliran masuk modal asing. Aliran modal masuk dapat menjadi sumber pembiayaan pembangunan, serta dapat mendukung pendalaman pasar keuangan. Di sisi lain aliran modal masuk yang cukup masif dan tidak dapat terserap oleh perekonomian secara keseluruhan, maka berdampak melemahkan daya saing ekspor dan stabilitas makro. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak Foreign Direct Investment dan investasi portofolio terhadap fundamental makroekonomi. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian adalah Vector Autoregression melalui penggunaan impulse response dan variance decomposition dengan time series data 2005.Q4 – 2011.Q4. Beberapa variabel yang digunakan adalah pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi, nilai tukar terhadap US$, BI Rate, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), dan Investasi Portofolio. Hasil Penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dampak positif FDI terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan investasi portofolio. Terhadap stabilitas harga,  dampak FDI adalah negatif dan investasi portofolio berdampak positif. Dampak FDI terhadap kurs positif dan investasi portofolio memberikan pengaruh negatif. Sedangkan kebijakan moneter melalui BI Rate merespon negatif perkembangan FDI dan merespon positif investasi portofolio. Hal ini menunjukkan investasi portofolio lebih berpengaruh terhadap instabilitas makroekonomi terutama terhadap stabilitas harga dan nilai tukar. Masif-nya aliran masuk modal asing menyebabkan kecenderungan terjadinya apresiasi nilai tukar yang melampaui kondisi fundamental dan berimplikasi pada asset price bubble serta meningkatkan kerentanan pasar keuangan dan tekanan inflasi.

Kata Kunci : Foreign Direct Investment, Investasi Portfolio, Global Imbalances

 

Abstract

The imbalance of global economic recovery has led to a variety of implications on the economies of emerging markets countries, including Indonesia, its massive capital inflows. Capital inflows can be a source of development financing, as well as to support the deepening of financial markets. However, when capital inflows are massive enough and can not be absorbed by the economy as a whole, it will weaken the impact of export competitiveness and potential pressures on macroeconomic stability. This study aims to analyze the impact of foreign direct investment and portfolio investment against macroeconomic fundamentals. The method used in this study is the Vector Autoregression through the use of impulse response and variance decomposition with time series data 2005.Q4 - 2011.Q4. Some of the variables used are economic growth, inflation, exchange rate, BI Rate, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and Portfolio Investment. The research results indicate that the positive impact of FDI on economic growth is smaller than the portfolio investment. To price stability, the impact of FDI is negative and the positive impact of investment portfolio. Positive impact of FDI on the exchange rate and the investment portfolio of negative influence. While monetary policy through the BI Rate of negative response to the development of FDI and portfolio investments respond positively. This shows more effect on the investment portfolio of macroeconomic instability, especially on the stability of prices and exchange rates. Its massive capital inflows cause the exchange rate appreciation trend that goes beyond the fundamental conditions and implications for the asset price bubble and increase the vulnerability of financial markets and inflation.

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Portfolio Investment, Global imbalances