Peramalan Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) Kota Tarakan dengan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing dari Brown

St Syahdan(1*), Siti Aisyah(2),

(1) Kaltara University
(2) Kaltara University
(*) Corresponding Author
St Syahdan
Siti Aisyah

Abstract


The Tarakan City Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows trend patterns. This research is applied research with the aim of determining the best parameters and forecast results of Tarakan City CPI from January to May 2019 with the Double Exponential Smoothing method from Brown. The results of the Tarakan City CPI forecasting with the best parameters  0,5 with MAPE value = 0,670 from January to May 2019, respectively are 147,652; 148,481; 149,309; 150,138  and  150,966. These results indicate that the forecast of CPI in Tarakan City has increased every month. The higher the CPI value, the faster the inflation rate will have an impact on the rising prices of goods and services. By knowing CPI forecasting that continues to increase, the purchase of inventory of goods and services can be accelerated in order to avoid purchasing higher inventory.


Keywords


Time series; Double Exponential Smoothing; Trend Patterns; CPI

Full Text:

ARTIKEL TURNITIN

References


Badan Pusat Statistik Kota Salatiga. (2014). Perkembangan IHK dan Inflasi Kota Salatiga Tahun 2013. Katalog BPS: 7104001.3373.

Imbar, R., & Andreas, Y. (2012). Aplikasi Peramalan Stok Barang Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing. Jurnal Teknik Informatika Dan Sistem Informasi, 7(2), 123–141.

Langi, T. M., Maisnambow, V., & Siwu, H. (2014). Analisis Pengaruh Suku Bunga Jml Uang Beredar Kurs Thdp Inflasi Indonesia. 14(2).

Maulidah, S. (2012). Peramalan (forecasting) permintaan. Malang: Lab of Agribusiness Analysis and Management Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Brawijaya.

Nasrum, A. (2016). Journal of math sciences -jms-. Journal of Math Sciences, 1(339), 1–4.

Pujian, E., Yuniarti, D., & Goejantoro, R. (2016). Peramalan Dengan Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Dari Brown ( Studi Kasus : Indeks Harga Konsumen ( IHK ) Kota Samarinda ). Jurnal EKSPONENSIAL, 7(1), 33–40.

Purwanto, A., & Hanief, S. (2017). Teknik Peramalan Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Pada Distributor Gula. Jurnal Teknologi Informasi Dan Komputer, 3(1), 362–366.

Sumantri, F., & Latifah, U. (2019). Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi indeks harga konsumen. Widy Ciipta: Jurnal Sekretari Dan Manajemen, 3(1), 25–34. https://ejournal.bsi.ac.id/ejurnal/index.php/widyacipta/article/view/4638/pdf

Susiana. (2019). Analisis Peramalan Penjualan Minyak Kelapa Sawit (MKS) pada PT. Perkebunan Nusantara IV Unit Kebun Pabatu. Karismatika, 53(9), 1689–1699.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.26594/jmpm.v5i1.1748

Article metrics

Abstract Abstract views : 0times
ARTIKEL views : 0 times TURNITIN views : 0 times

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.




Indexed by:

       

Flag Counter

Creative Commons License
Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika by JMPM is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Based on a work at http://www.journal.unipdu.ac.id/index.php/jmpm/