Spatial dynamics model of land use and land cover changes: A comparison of CA, ANN, and ANN-CA

Moh. Dede(1*), Chay Asdak(2), Iwan Setiawan(3),

(1) National Nuclear Energy Agency (BATAN)
(2) Universitas Padjadjaran
(3) Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia
(*) Corresponding Author
Moh. Dede
Chay Asdak
Iwan Setiawan


Land use and land cover (LULC) changes through built-up area expansion always increases linearly with land demand as a consequence of population growth and urbanization. Cirebon City is a center for Ciayumajakuning Region that continues to grow and exceeds its administrative boundaries. This phenomenon has led to peri-urban regions which show urban and rural interactions. This study aims to analyze (1) the dynamics of LULC changes using cellular automata (CA), artificial neural network (ANN), and ANN-CA; (2) the influential factors (drivers); and (3) change probability in the period 2030 and 2045 for Cirebon’s peri-urban. We used logistic regression as quantitative approach to analyze the interaction of drivers and LULC changes. The LULC data derived from Landsat series satellite imagery in 1999-2009 and 2009-2019, validation of dynamic spatial model refers to 100 LULC samples. This research shows that LULC changes are dominated by built-up area expansion which causes plantations and agricultural land to decrease. The drivers have a simultaneous effect on LULC changes with r-square of 0.43, where land slope, distance from existing built-up area, distance from CBD, and accessibility are significant triggers. LULC simulation of CA algorithm is the best model than ANN and ANN-CA based on overall accuracy and overall accuracy (0.96, 0.75, 0.73 and 0.95, 0.66, 0.66 respectively), it reveals urban sprawl through the ribbon and compact development. The average probability of built-up area expansion is 0.18 (2030) and 0.19 (2045). If there is no intervention in spatial planning, this phenomenon will decrease productive agricultural lands in Cirebon's peri-urban.


Cirebon’s peri-urban; Logistic regression; LULC changes; spatial dynamics

Full Text:



[1] R. DeFries, A. Hansen, B. L. Turner, R. Reid and J. Liu, "Land Use Change Around Protected Areas: Management to Balance Human Needs and Ecological Function," Ecological Applications, vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 1031-1038, 2007.

[2] E. F. Lambin and P. Meyfroidt, "Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity," in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2011.

[3] A.-A. Kafy, M. N. H. Naim, G. Subramanyam, A.-A.-. Faisal, N. U. Ahmed, A. A. Rakib, M. A. Kona and G. S. Sattar, "Cellular Automata approach in dynamic modelling of land cover changes using RapidEye images in Dhaka, Bangladesh," Environmental Challenges, vol. 4, 2021.

[4] O. Brovkina, F. Zemek, J. Novotný, M. Heřman and P. Štěpánek, "Analysing changes in land cover in relation to environmental factors in the districts of Znojmo and Třebíč (Czech Republic)," European Journal of Environmental Sciences, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 108-118, 2017.

[5] M. Mastel, A. Bussalleu, V. A. Paz-Soldán, G. Salmón-Mulanovich, A. Valdés-Velásquez and S. M. Hartinger, "Critical linkages between land use change and human health in the Amazon region: A scoping review," PLoS ONE, vol. 13, no. 6, 2018.

[6] M. Dede, M. A. Widiawaty, Y. R. Ramadhan, A. Ismail and W. Nurdian, "Prediksi Suhu Permukaan Menggunakan Artificial Neural Network-Cellular Automata di Wilayah Cirebon dan Sekitarnya," in Seminar Nasional Geomatika 2020, 2020.

[7] Z. Opršal, P. Kladivo and I. Machar, "The role of selected biophysical factors in long-term land-use change of cultural landscape," Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 23-40, 2016.

[8] J. M. Kamwi, M. A. Cho, C. Kaetsch, S. O. Manda, F. P. Graz and P. W. Chirwa, "Assessing the Spatial Drivers of Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Protected and Communal Areas of the Zambezi Region, Namibia," Land, vol. 7, no. 4, p. 131, 2018.

[9] M. A. Widiawaty, A. Ismail, M. Dede and N. Nurhanifah, "Modeling Land Use and Land Cover Dynamic Using Geographic Information System and Markov-CA," Geosfera Indonesia, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 210-225, 2020.

[10] S. S. Demograf, "Proyeksi Penduduk Indonesia 2010-2035," Badan Pusat Statistik, Jakarta, 2013.

[11] L. Jiang and Y. Zhang, "Modeling Urban Expansion and Agricultural Land Conversion in Henan Province, China: An Integration of Land Use and Socioeconomic Data," Sustainability, vol. 8, no. 9, p. 920, 2016.

[12] M. A. Widiawaty, N. Nurhanifah, A. Ismail and M. Dede, "The The impact of Cirebon coal-fired power plants on water quality in Mundu Bay, Cirebon Regency," Sustinere: Journal of Environment and Sustainability, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 189-204, 2020.

[13] L. S. Hasibuan, "Analisis Dampak Konversi Lahan Terhadap Sosial Ekonomi Masyarakat di Kabupaten Deli Serdang," Ekonomikawan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 1-15, 2015.

[14] M. Dede, G. P. Pramulatsih, M. A. Widiawaty, Y. R. Ramadhan and A. Ati, "Dinamika Suhu Permukaan dan Kerapatan Vegetasi di Kota Cirebon," Jurnal Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 23-30, 2019.

[15] M. Dede, C. Asdak and I. Setiawan, "Spatial-Ecological Approach in Cirebon’s Peri-Urban Regionalization," in The 4th International Geography Seminar, 2020.

[16] N. G. Dan-Jumbo, M. J. Metzger and A. P. Clark, "Urban Land-Use Dynamics in the Niger Delta: The Case of Greater Port Harcourt Watershed," Urban Science, vol. 2, no. 4, p. 108, 2018.

[17] K. S. Kumar, N. V. A. S. S. Valasala, J. V. V. Subrahmanyam, M. Mallampati, K. Shaik and P. Ekkirala, "Prediction of Future Land Use Land Cover Changes of Vijayawada City Using Remote Sensing and GIS," International Journal of Innovative Research in Advanced Engineering, vol. 2, no. 3, p. 91–97, 2015.

[18] X. Li and A. G.-O. Yeh, "Neural-network-based cellular automata for simulating multiple land use changes using GIS," International Journal of Geographical Information Science, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 323-343, 2002.

[19] S. Karim, "Perubahan perilaku Non-Player Character (NPC) pada Game Arabic Hunter menggunakan Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan Perceptron," Register: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Sistem Informasi, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 34-41, 2017.

[20] Y. Andriani, H. Silitonga and A. Wanto, "Analisis Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan untuk prediksi volume ekspor dan impor migas di Indonesia," Register: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Sistem Informasi, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 30-40, 2018.

[21] M. A. Widiawaty, Mari Mengenal Sains Informasi Georafis, Bandung: Aria Mandiri Group, 2019.

[22] D. Sugandi, I. Setiawan and N. Sugito, "Application Remote Sensing to Analysis Bandung Basin Landuse," PONTE, vol. 72, no. 8, pp. 388-399, 2016.

[23] A. Banskota, N. Kayastha, M. J. Falkowski, M. A. Wulder, R. E. Froese and J. C. White, "Forest Monitoring Using Landsat Time Series Data: A Review," Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing, vol. 40, p. 362–384, 2014.

[24] Y.-M. Luo, Y. Ouyang, R.-C. Zhang and H.-M. Feng, "Multi-Feature Joint Sparse Model for the Classification of Mangrove Remote Sensing Images," ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, vol. 6, no. 6, p. 177, 2017.

[25] M. A. Widiawaty, N. Nandi and H. Murtianto, "Physical and Social Factors of Shoreline Change in Gebang, Cirebon Regency 1915–2019," Journal of applied geospatial information, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 327-334, 2020.

[26] S. R. P. Sitorus, C. Leonataris and D. R. Panuju, "Analisis Pola Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan dan Perkembangan Wilayah di Kota Bekasi, Provinsi Jawa Barat," Jurnal Ilmu Tanah dan Lingkungan, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 21-28, 2012.

[27] A. Ismail, M. Dede and M. A. Widiawaty, "Urbanisasi Dan HIV di Kota Bandung (Perspektif Geografi Kesehatan)," Buletin Penelitian Kesehatan, vol. 48, no. 2, pp. 139-146, 2020.

[28] N. H. Asnawi and L. K. Choy, "Analisis Perubahan Guna Tanah dan Litupan Bumi di Gombak, Selangor Menggunakan Data Penderiaan Jauh," Sains Malaysiana, vol. 45, no. 12, p. 1869–1877, 2016.

[29] S. H. A. Jarah, B. Zhou, R. J. Abdullah, Y. Lu and W. Yu, "Urbanization and Urban Sprawl Issues in City Structure: A Case of the Sulaymaniah Iraqi Kurdistan Region," Sustainability, vol. 11, no. 2, p. 485, 2019.

[30] S. N. Mohapatra, P. Pani and M. Sharma, "Rapid Urban Expansion and Its Implications on Geomorphology: A Remote Sensing and GIS Based Study," Geography Journal, 2014.

[31] B. M. Brebante, "Analyzing the Effects of Land Cover/Land Use Changes on Flashflood: A Case Study of Marikina River Basin (MRB), Philippines," University of Twente, Enschede, 2017.

[32] B. Mienmany, "Analysis land use and land cover changes and the driving forces: A case study in Kaysone Phomvihan District, Laos," University of Porto, Porto, 2018.

[33] A. Willige, "The UN says climate-smart cities are the future – these 3 projects show their potential," World Economic Forum, 2020. [Online]. Available:

[34] K. Farrell, "The Rapid Urban Growth Triad: A New Conceptual Framework for Examining the Urban Transition in Developing Countries," Sustainability, vol. 9, no. 8, p. 1407, 2017.

[35] S. Wilonoyudho, R. Rijanta, Y. T.Keban and B. Setiawan, "Urbanization and Regional Imbalances in Indonesia," Indonesian Journal of Geography, vol. 49, no. 2, pp. 125-132, 2017.

[36] M. A. Widiawaty, G. P. Pramulatsih and V. Pebriani, "Jaringan Transportasi dan Pengembangan Destinasi Pariwisata di Kota Cirebon," in The 6th Travel Industry Student Forum (TISF), Bandung, 2018.

[37] J. Lahti, "Modelling Urban Growth Using Cellular Automata: A case study of Sydney, Australia," The International Institute for Geo-informations Science and Earth Observation, Enschede, 2008.

[38] D. W. Hosmer and S. Lemeshow, Applied Logistic Regression, John Wiley & Sons, 2000.

[39] A. M. R. Patiwiri, "Alih Fungsi Tanah Pertanian Untuk Pembangunan Perumahan di Kabupaten Luwu Timur," Universitas Hasanuddin, Makassar, 2013.

[40] S. S. Rwanga and J. M. Ndambuki, "Accuracy Assessment of Land Use/Land Cover Classification Using Remote Sensing and GIS," International Journal of Geosciences, vol. 8, no. 4, p. 611, 2017.

[41] A. Al Kafy, M. S. Rahman, A. Al Faisal, M. M. Hasan and M. Islam, "Modelling future land use land cover changes and their impacts on land surface temperatures in Rajshahi, Bangladesh," Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, vol. 18, 2020.

[42] Y. Liu and Y. Feng, "A Logistic Based Cellular Automata Model for Continuous Urban Growth Simulation: A Case Study of the Gold Coast City, Australia. 2012 Agent-Based Models of Geographical Systems," in Agent-Based Models of Geographical Systems, A. J. Heppenstall, A. T. Crooks, L. M. See and M. Batty, Eds., Dordrecht, Springer, 2012.

[43] Z. Shahbazian, M. Faramarzi, N. Rostami and H. Mahdizadeh, "Integrating logistic regression and cellular automata–Markov models with the experts’ perceptions for detecting and simulating land use changes and their driving forces," Environ Monit Assess, vol. 191, no. 422, 2019.

[44] G. W. Laskara, "Strategi Implementasi Konsep “Compact City” Menuju Pengembangan Kawasan Perkotaan Berkelanjutan," in Seminar Nasional Konsepsi #2, Denpasar, 2016.

[45] A. Hasdaniati, "Studi Pola Perkembangan Perkotaan Berdasarkan Morfologi Ruang Di Kota Bantaeng," Universitas Islam Negeri Alauddin Makassar, Makassar, 2014.

[46] T. Verbeek and B. Tempels, "Measuring fragmentation of open space in urbanised Flanders: an evaluation of four methods," Belgeo. Revue belge de géographie, vol. 2, 2016.

[47] S. Brody, "The Characteristics, Causes, and Consequences of Sprawling Development Patterns in the United States," Nature Education Knowledge, vol. 4, no. 5, p. 2, 2013.


Article metrics

Abstract Abstract views : 0times
PDF views : 0 times


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c) 2022 Moh. Dede, Chay Asdak, Iwan Setiawan

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Indexed in:



This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International  License