SOLUSI DAMPAK INSTABILITAS EKSPOR DI INDONESIA: INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE PATTERN SAJA!

Abstract

Abstrak

Secara empiris, konsep pola PII mulai dikembangkan tahun 1980-an di negara-negara industri modern yang notabene memiliki faktor endowment relatif sama, yaitu cenderung padat modal. Konsep pola PII kemudian diadopsi negara-negara sedang berkembang yang secara konseptual juga memiliki kesamaan faktor endowment, yaitu cenderung padat tenaga kerja. Intensitas PII akan semakin tinggi apabila negara yang terlibat dagang adalah kelompok negara yang melakukan integrasi ekonomi (ASEAN).

Tujuan penelitian yang ingin dicapai adalah untuk memperoleh gambaran intensitas PII antara Indonesia ASEAN-4, serta untuk memperoleh bukti empirik, menguji dan menjelaskan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi intensitas PII Indonesia dengan ASEAN-4, sehingga penelitian ini bisa digunakan sebagai acuan mengambil keputusan untuk memberlakukan pola PII sebagai salah satu cara untuk mengatasi instabilitas ekspor Indonesia akibat aktivitas ekonomi mitra dagang besar.

Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Indeks Grubel-Lloyd dan analisis panel data. Hasil analisis data pertama, PII manufaktur Indonesia ke pasar ASEAN-4 periode 1985 - 2009 berdasarkan kode SITC cenderung mengalami pergeseran. Komoditi yang sebelumnya indeksnya tinggi pada tahun berikutnya menurun. Share intensitas PII antara Indonesia dengan ASEAN-4 masuk dalam kategori non-PII karena indeksnya < 40%; kedua, intensitas PII manufaktur didasarkan kode ISIC sudah masuk dalam kategori PII karena indeksnya sudah ≥ 40%, tepatnya 47,65% dan sisanya 52,35% berkategori non-PII, serta ketiga, estimasi model ekonometrik dengan metode FEM diperoleh hasil, yaitu intensitas tenaga kerja menunjukkan positif tidak signifikan, struktur pasar positif signifikan, skala ekonomi positif tidak signifikan, diferensiasi produk positif signifikan, dan dummy integrasi ekonomi positif signifikan.

 

Kata kunci: perdagangan intra-industri, struktur pasar, skala ekonomi, diferensiasi produk

Abstract

Empirically, the concept of IIT pattern was developed in the 1980s in modern industrialized countries which incidentally has the same endowment of factors, which tend to be capital intensive. IIT pattern concept was later adopted into the developing countries that are conceptually also have the same endowment of factors, which tend to be labor intensive. The intensity of IIT is believed to be higher if the countries involved are a group of countries that trade to economic integration (ASEAN).

Research objectives to be achieved is to obtain a picture of the intensity of IIT between Indonesia and ASEAN-4, and to obtain empirical evidence, examine and explain the factors that influence the intensity of IIT Indonesia with ASEAN-4, so this study can be used as a reference to take a decision to impose a IIT pattern as a way to overcome the instability of exports of Indonesia as a result of major trading partners of economic activity

This study used Grubel-Lloyd Index and panel data analysis. The results concluded the first manufacturing IIT of Indonesia to ASEAN market-4 during the period 1985 to 2009 according to SITC categories tend to experience a shift in which commodities are higher earlier in the year following the index declined. Share intensity of IIT between Indonesia with four ASEAN member countries are included non IIT category because it was < 40%; the second, the intensity of IIT in manufacturing based on ISIC category is included in the category of IIT because it was ≥ 40%, exactly 47.65% and 52.35% for the remaining non-IIT category, and third, the estimation in the model econometric conclusions obtained by FEM method, the intensity of labor showed no significant positive number. Market structure showed a significant positive number. Economies of scale showed no significant positive number. Product differentiation showed a significant positive number. Economic integration dummy showed a significant positive.

Key words: intra-industry trade, market structure, economies of scale, product differentiation