Perbandingan metode Double Exponential Smoothing dan Simple Moving Average pada kasus peramalan penjualan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26594/teknologi.v11i2.2348Abstract
Toko Bangunan Barokah (TB. Barokah) yang berada di Singosari, Malang, Jawa Timur adalah salah satu toko yang menjual bahan bangunan. Beberapa barang yang dijual adalah semen putih dan semen hitam. Jumlah penjualan semen setiap bulan sangat beragam dan fluktuatif. Semen hitam menempati angka sangat tinggi dibandingkan semen hitam pada grafik penjualan setiap bulannya. Begitu juga dengan semen hitam merek Bosowa, semen putih merek Gresik dan merek Tiga Roda meskipun permintaan kecil, tetapi masih terjadi pergerakan jumlah penjualannya. Jumlah permintaan yang sangat fluktuatif menjadikan jumlah persediaan produk yang disiapkan tidak pasti, yang dipengaruhi oleh jumlah jenis dan merek, sehingga manajemen persediaan produk kesulitan dalam penyediaannya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramal jumlah semen yang terjual di bulan berikutnya, serta untuk mengetahui kinerja antara kedua metode Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) dan Simple Moving Average (SMA) untuk melakukan forecasting hasil penjualan semen pada TB. Barokah. Metode SMA mampu melakukan peramalan dengan data permintaan atau penjualan yang stabil/konstan. Sedangkan metode DES mampu dan dapat memberikan nilai pada bobot secara bertingkat dengan data up to date. DES mampu melakukan peramalan penjualan semen tiap bulan dengan nilai rata-rata percentange error (PE) 0,14%, sedangkan SMA dengan nilai rata-rata PE 1,35%. Berdasarkan hasil pengujian menggunakan data dari TB. Barokah didapatkan bahwa metode yang paling efektif adalah DES karena memiliki nilai PE lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan SMA.
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