Pengujian Model Multiplicative Holt Winter’s Exponential Smoothing dalam Peramalan Data Time-Series Terdampak Covid-19
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26594/teknologi.v12i1.3319Abstract
Kereta api merupakan salah satu moda transportasi yang paling sering digunakan oleh masyarakat untuk bepergian. Data jumlah penumpang kereta api di Jabodetabek untuk semua jenis kelas merupakan data time series yang mempunyai pola musiman. Namun, pada tahun 2019, terjadi wabah Covid – 19 yang berdampak pada seluruh sektor salah satunya pada jumlah penumpang kereta api. Oleh karena itu, dalam penelitian ini akan dilakukan pengujian model Multiplicative Holt – Winter exponential smoothing dalam peramalan data time series terkait jumlah penumpang kereta api di Jabodetabek periode Januari 2018 – Desember 2021. Metode Holt – Winter exponential smoothing merupakan salah satu metode peramalan yang dapat meramalkan data yang memuat pola trend. Metode Holt – Winter exponential smoothing ini memiliki tiga parameter pemulusan, yaitu ?, ?, dan ?. Dalam pemilihan parameter, akan digunakan RMSE dan SSE untuk mengoptimalkan ?, ?, dan ?. Kemudian, penentuan parameter yang optimalkan akan dipilih berdasarkan nilai MAPE yang dihasilkan setelah proses optimalisasi. Dalam penelitian ini, diperoleh parameter yang optimal yaitu ? = 0,97, ? = 0,03, dan ? = 1 dengan nilai SSE yang dihasilkan sebesar 4,81E+08 serta nilai MAPE sebesar 9,98%.
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