Spatial dynamics model of land use and land cover changes: A comparison of CA, ANN, and ANN-CA

Authors

  • Moh. Dede National Nuclear Energy Agency (BATAN)
  • Chay Asdak Universitas Padjadjaran
  • Iwan Setiawan Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26594/register.v8i1.2339

Keywords:

Cirebon’s peri-urban, Logistic regression, LULC changes, spatial dynamics

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes through built-up area expansion always increases linearly with land demand as a consequence of population growth and urbanization. Cirebon City is a center for Ciayumajakuning Region that continues to grow and exceeds its administrative boundaries. This phenomenon has led to peri-urban regions which show urban and rural interactions. This study aims to analyze (1) the dynamics of LULC changes using cellular automata (CA), artificial neural network (ANN), and ANN-CA; (2) the influential factors (drivers); and (3) change probability in the period 2030 and 2045 for Cirebon’s peri-urban. We used logistic regression as quantitative approach to analyze the interaction of drivers and LULC changes. The LULC data derived from Landsat series satellite imagery in 1999-2009 and 2009-2019, validation of dynamic spatial model refers to 100 LULC samples. This research shows that LULC changes are dominated by built-up area expansion which causes plantations and agricultural land to decrease. The drivers have a simultaneous effect on LULC changes with r-square of 0.43, where land slope, distance from existing built-up area, distance from CBD, and accessibility are significant triggers. LULC simulation of CA algorithm is the best model than ANN and ANN-CA based on overall accuracy and overall accuracy (0.96, 0.75, 0.73 and 0.95, 0.66, 0.66 respectively), it reveals urban sprawl through the ribbon and compact development. The average probability of built-up area expansion is 0.18 (2030) and 0.19 (2045). If there is no intervention in spatial planning, this phenomenon will decrease productive agricultural lands in Cirebon's peri-urban.

Author Biographies

Moh. Dede, National Nuclear Energy Agency (BATAN)

Center for Nuclear Energy System Assessment

Chay Asdak, Universitas Padjadjaran

Department of Agricultural Engineering

Iwan Setiawan, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia

Department of Geography Education

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Published

2021-06-15

How to Cite

[1]
M. Dede, C. Asdak, and I. Setiawan, “Spatial dynamics model of land use and land cover changes: A comparison of CA, ANN, and ANN-CA”, Register: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Sistem Informasi, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 38–49, Jun. 2021.

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Vol. 8 No. 1 (2022): January

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