A Web-Based Forecasting Approach to Estimating the Number of Low-Income Households Eligible for Social Food Aid Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing

https://doi.org/10.26594/register.v11i2.4922

Authors

  • Mukhamad Masrur Masrur Universitas Pesantren Tinggi Darul Ulum (Indonesia)
  • Solikhin Solikhin STMIK Himsya Semarang (Indonesia) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1337-7571
  • Muhammad Walid Syahrul Churum Universitas Pesantren Tinggi Darul Ulum (Indonesia)
  • M. Zakki Abdillah Universitas Nasional Karangturi (Indonesia)
  • Toni Wijanarko Adi Putra Universitas Sains dan Teknologi Komputer (Indonesia)

Keywords:

Web-Based Forecasting, Low-Income Households, Social-Food Aid, Holt's Double Exponential, Decision Support System

Abstract

This work presents a web-based forecasting methodology for predicting the quantity of low-income households qualified for social food assistance utilizing Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing (HDES) technique. Precise assessment is crucial for governmental bodies and social welfare organizations to guarantee efficient aid distribution and effective resource allocation. The proposed method amalgamates time series forecasting models with a web-based application to deliver real-time predictions and accessibility for decision-makers. Historical data on low-income household statistics were employed to formulate and authenticate the forecasting model. The findings indicate that HDES delivers dependable short-term predictions with low error rates, accurately reflecting patterns in the data. This online application offers policymakers an effective means for monitoring socio-economic trends and enhancing the responsiveness of social assistance initiatives. This research contributes by integrating statistical forecasting with web-based applications to aid social policy decisions.

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Author Biographies

Mukhamad Masrur Masrur, Universitas Pesantren Tinggi Darul Ulum

Department of Information Systems

Solikhin Solikhin, STMIK Himsya Semarang

Department of Informatics Engineering

Muhammad Walid Syahrul Churum, Universitas Pesantren Tinggi Darul Ulum

Department of Information Systems

M. Zakki Abdillah, Universitas Nasional Karangturi

Department of Information Systems

Toni Wijanarko Adi Putra, Universitas Sains dan Teknologi Komputer

Department of Informatics Engineering

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Published

2025-11-28

How to Cite

[1]
M. M. Masrur, S. Solikhin, M. W. S. Churum, M. Z. Abdillah, and T. W. A. Putra, “A Web-Based Forecasting Approach to Estimating the Number of Low-Income Households Eligible for Social Food Aid Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing”, Register: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Sistem Informasi, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 91–105, Nov. 2025.

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Vol. 11 No. 2 (2025): July (In Progress)

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Copyright (c) 2025 Mukhamad Masrur Masrur, Solikhin Solikhin; Muhammad Walid Syahrul Churum; M. Zakki Abdillah

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