Analisis Sensitivitas Model SEIRV pada Penyebaran Penyakit Covid-19 di Indonesia
Sensitivity Analysis of the SEIRV Model on the Spread of Covid-19 Disease in Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26594/jmpm.v8i1.3438Keywords:
Covid-19, SEIRV, Vaksinasi, Analisis SensitivitasAbstract
Model SEIRV dibentuk dengan melihat pada perlakuan terhadap orang yang terinfeksi di Indonesia dengan pembagian subpopulasi terinfeksi menjadi tiga: subpopulasi terinfeksi dirawat di rumah sakit, terinfeksi tidak teridentifikasi, dan terinfeksi isolasi mandiri. Model ini dianalisis sifat kestabilan titik tetapnya dan menganalisis parameter mana yang paling peka terhadap perubahan simulasi model. Model ini memiliki titik tetap tanpa penyakit yang stabil asimtotik lokal pada kondisi bilangan reproduksi dasar kurang dari satu dan titik tetap endemik stabil asimtotik lokal pada kondisi bilangan reproduksi dasar lebih dari satu. Hasil analisis sensitivitas menunjukkan ada tiga parameter yang memiliki pengaruh besar terhadap model: laju transmisi penyakit dari subpopulasi rentan menjadi terekspos, laju kesembuhan subpopulasi terinfeksi tidak teridentifikasi, dan laju vaksinasi. Hal yang dapat dilakukan ketika menginginkan kondisi dimana tidak ada lagi wabah Covid-19 adalah menekan laju penyebaran Covid-19, meningkatkan laju kesembuhan subpopulasi terinfeksi tidak teridentifikasi, dan meningkatkan laju pemberian vaksinasi terhadap populasi.
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